Reasoning frame
What you will get back
01Context
The situation plus the domain mechanics that make it non-trivial (funding rates, CME closure, the Peltzman effect). Ends on the meta-goal — "data-driven, not emotional"; "root-cause first, then adjust".
02Problem
One sentence. "Evaluate / Identify … by analyzing <a, b, c, d>" or "… and provide a framework for diagnosing which …".
03Reasoning Steps
Exactly five, numbered. Each reads "Verb the thing: what to determine and why." Hypothesis-per-step for a diagnostic; factor-per-step for a decision. The fifth step is always a synthesis step.
04Expected Output
Bulleted: the per-factor analysis, a categorized report, a final recommendation, and the single "flip" threshold that would reverse that recommendation.
Plus 3 clarifying questions you can answer to re-run with more facts.